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The Democratic Primary is now just five weeks away. The undecideds in recent polls are far fewer, and the numbers are firming up. Terry McAuliffe leads among likely primary voters, but Bob McDonnell leads among registered voters. A SurveyUSA poll taken at the end of April breaks out results from people who say they are likely to vote in the Primary (Margin of Error 4.9% -- rather high, because of the modest size of the group). Compared with the results of two polls discussed here recently (among Democrats, but not self-described as likely primary voters) Moran shows almost no movement, Deeds has improved slightly, and McAuliffe has doubled his number. Since the 'undecided' category was at 44% and here is18% of the respondents, it is likely that McAuliffe has picked up a very large part of those who have moved out of the undecided column.
The bad news is, among registered voters polled, Bob McDonnell continues to lead each of the Democrats. Here's where we were three weeks ago:
And in this poll
So Creigh Deeds actually does least poorly vs. McDonnell among registered voters, even though McAuliffe is doing so well with those who might actually vote in the primary. Firmness of commitment A further question asked of the likely primary voters probed the strength of commitment that he or she has for their preferred candidate. About a third of each candidate's advocates say they are unlikely to change their minds. But of the rest, there's an interesting disparity Might consider changing preference
That is, of people who prefer Creigh Deeds, only 15% think that something might change their vote, while of those supporting Terry McAuliffe (a larger group to begin with), a whopping 40% are still open to the notion of voting for Moran or Deeds. (Dave Sagarin, May 4, 2009)
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