Much is made over periodic fundraising reports of the campaigns--we are suckers for a horse race, and numbers are easy to compare. The first quarter of 2009, however, had some quirks that make comparisons a little trickier. For one thing, elected officials, including sitting members of the legislature, may not accept campaign contributions during the session--this year, from January 11 to February 28.

Bob McDonnell resigned as Attorney General prior to the end of the session, and Brian Moran gave up his seat in the Assembly so not to lose all that time for fundraising. Terry McAuliffe had no conflict.

But Creigh Deeds kept his seat in the Senate, saying that he owed it to the people who elected him.

In the quarter, McAuliffe raised $4.2 million, for a total to the end of March of about $5.2 million, and had $2.5 million left to spend. Of his first quarter total, only 18% was from within the borders of the Old Dominion--but 18% of a very large amount means that he still managed to raise more money in Virginia than did either of his two Democratic opponents.

In the quarter, Brian Moran raised $800,000 (Ninety percent in Virginia), and has $825,000 left to spend.

And Creigh Deeds raised $600,000, with $1.2 million to spend. His money came 97% from Virginia sources.

A recent poll by Public Policy Polling (not to be confused with Al Weed's "Public Policy Virginia") asked registered voters which of the candidates they were familiar with and how much they liked them.

Among Democrats there were more than twice as many unfamiliar or undecided (45%) as there were partisans of any candidate. Brian Moran leads in "I would vote for him if the primary were today"--which it emphatically is NOT--with 22%, followed by McAuliffe at 18% and Deeds 15%. The margin of error for the poll is about 4% plus or minus, so these numbers will become much more useful when the next round is published.

A poll done for the DailyKos blog came up with very nearly the same results, displayed as part of this table, along with some interesting interior numbers.

But while looking at the details, remember that the Margin of Error increases as you take percentages within smaller and smaller contributing groups.

And an important question each campaign is asking, looking at these numbers, is who will actually turn up on primary day?

Versus McDonnell

At this early stage, it is more like bear-baiting than serious politics, but for the fun of it here are the comparisons. "If the election for Governor of Virginia were held today, would you vote for ....

Deeds / McDonnell 31 - 38
Moran / McDonnell 36 - 37
McAuliffe / McDonnell 33 - 40

That is, Brian Moran does best vs. the certain Republican nominee, which aligns with his being somewhat more popular with Democrats than either of the other guys. But notice that McDonnell bests any of them.

(Dave Sagarin, April 15, 2009)