George,

I think the question raised regarding the McAuliffe/Cuccinelli poll is not the right inquiry-- which should be: what does the poll mean? At this time last year, Tim Kaine, a popular recent former governor, and George Allen, a not-as-popular former governor and scandal-wracked also-ran, were polling evenly. Given that all voters knew who Kaine was in May of 2012, and few voters know who McAuliffe is now, these are comparable numbers, I'd say.

This year, we have an incumbent AG who has made every effort to have his name in the media nearly constantly for the past four years, vs someone that only Democrats and politicos really know. The scandal referred to is not on the radar of low-information voters-BUT, it keeps his name in their short-term memories. So, the answer to the question "what does the poll mean?" is: everyone knows Cooch, only high-information voters know McAulliffe, and the race has just begun. A poll matching Cooch v Terry at this point is like matching Justin Beiber v the kid next door. It doesn't mean anything about the outcome in November.

Valerie L'Herrou (Electronic mail, May 6, 2013)