There'll be a Democratic Primary June 9, to select a candidate to run against Bob McDonnell for Governor of Virginia. Primary voters are understood to come from the more liberal, activist sector of the party-- and this is likely to be more true than ever, with an anticipated light turnout.

In a gubernatorial debate the other day, Brian Moran made a strong statement on gay rights. He said that if elected, he will work to overturn the Virginia constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman. Creigh Deeds and Terry McAuliffe tread much more lightly on the issue.

It seems that Moran is pushing gay rights as a point of difference, in the runup to the primary. It would certainly be a major point of difference in the general election campaign with conservative Republican McDonnell.

The Commonwealth, and the populous D.C. suburbs in particular, seem to be trending toward a more tolerant and inclusive view. Although the state voted for the Marshall-Newman amendment by a substantial majority in 2006, chunks of Northern Virginia actually voted slightly against it. Both Moran and McAuliffe get much of their support from this region, so it seems sound strategy for Moran to try to separate himself from the front-runner and get to the left of him.

On the other hand, the general election is likely to be cast by both sides as a referendum on the Obama presidency, so Virginia state issues and social issues will probably be of less consequence.

But What About the African-American Vote?

While the African-American vote for Obama was staggering, there is also unease with the Democratic Party positions on abortion and gay marriage.

For example, the District of Columbia Council yesterday voted overwhelmingly to acknowledge gay marriages performed elsewhere. Which elicited a vociferous backlash from many black clergy in the District, and the threat of public and bitter division on the issue.

The recent SurveysUSA poll showed black registered voters giving Moran 7%, Deeds 27% and McAuliffe 46%. So even if African-Americans vote heavily in the primary, and if their votes are influenced by social issues, Moran has little to lose among them with this strategy.

(Dave Sagarin, May 6, 2009)