It is likely that the only contest on the ballot in our area next November will be for the U.S. Senate seat presently held by Mark Warner. There are two extremely conservative Republicans so far who have declared to seek the nomination to oppose Warner: Howie Lind of Mclean, a retired Navy officer and former 10th Congressional District GOP Chairman, and Shak Hill from Centreville, a retired Air Force pilot, foster parent and financial planner.

It looks like Alexandria resident Ed Gillespie, a poltical consultant and lobbyist, former chair of the Republican National Committee, will opt in. The party apparatus seems to be ready to back him--they're already spreading the word that he's really plenty conservative (getting him positioned to face the challengers from the right). They argue for the possibility of a win against Obamacare-supporter Warner.

Democrats are making the case that Gillespie knows that there's no chance, but this is a golden opportunity to build a presence in Virginia elective politics going into the 2017 governor's race. Losing to Mark Warner would not be much of a negative. We're already supposing that, barring unforeseen events, the Democratic candidate will be LG Ralph Northam.

Since Mark Warner is pretty well liked personally throughout the Commonwealth, Republican campaign strategy will be to run against President Obama and tie Warner to his support for administration policy. It will be interesting to see how the Senator positions himself in the next few months.

(January 13, 2014