George,

We need to get back to basics in analyzing what is happening in the campaign. The pundits keep talking about small changes in voting intentions as if they were significant. They speak of a "surge" in Obama's direction and then a "surge" in Romney's direction. They seem to forget that even the best polls have margins of error of plus or minus 3% on any question. (The question we are interested in here is "If the election were held today, who would you vote for?")

And when you look at the spread between Obama and Romney, you are doubling the amount of supposed change. For example, if a poll one week shows Obama with 51% and Romney 49%, the spread is 2 points. If the next week, the same polling organization shows Obama now has 52% and Romney has 48%, the spread is now 4 points (doubled) even though there has been only a very insignificant change of 1% in the polling result (51% to 52%). The fact is that Obama and Romney have been in a statistical dead heat among the total national electorate since the conventions.

Now let us look at the fundamentals. Most political scientists who have developed prediction models have two very important variables in their equations: job performance of the incumbent and the economy. In this election, with the economy as bad as it is, that problem is going to be an unusually dominant factor. When asked to name the most important problem facing the country, Gallup polls have consistently shown an overwhelming concern with the economy and jobs-mentioned by over 60% of respondents. And Obama's job approval has been below 50% for well over a year. It is remarkable that he is not well behind in the voters' choice.

I have just seen some important poll findings that are quite encouraging for Obama. Gallup routinely asks "would you say that you are financially better off now than you were a year ago, or are you financially worse off now?" For the first time since the crash in 2008, more people now say they are financially better off than worse off. This change in financial situation has happened quite rapidly in the past several months. Also, in recent weeks, Obama's job approval has gone up to over 50%, with the October 21-23 Gallup poll showing 53% approval and 42% disapproval. These are statistically significant changes in two variables that are fundamental in any election.

David RePass (Electronic mail, October 25, 2012)