Accurate population figures from the recent census will be available in February, 2011 and Virginia's filing deadline for state legislative candidates is just two months later. Virtually all population growth has been in the cities and suburbs, where 85 percent of the state's residents live, while the rural population has been shrinking. Northern Virginia, which has gained almost 500,000 residents since the last census, could gain at least one seat in the 40-member Senate (up from 11) and two or three seats in the 100-member House of Delegates (up from 26). Republicans presently have a strong majority in the House while Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate. Both parties will seek` to draw lines that protect their incumbents and boost their chances of winning new seats.

And the plan must be approved by the Department of Justice, a requirement under the Voting Rights Act for Southern states such as Virginia with a history of discrimination against African Americans. The responsibility for preparing the plan for federal review falls to state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R). Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R) also must sign off on the plan. He said last week in a radio interview that he is determined that both parties will have a say in redistricting.

An ideal state Senate district has a population of about 197,000, and a House district has 79,000 people, although those figures could change when the 2010 census figures are reported next year. But some districts have grown so rapidly that they contain 100,000 too many people. One aim of redistricting is to get within 5 percentage points of the ideal, a figure determined by past court cases.

The process of redrawing the lines has already been marked by partisan squabbling. This month, for example, House Republicans declined to hold joint public hearings with the Senate. House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) said that with control of the legislature divided, he expects that both parties will have input and serve as a check on the other. "You won't see plans that have wild or gerrymandered districts," he said. "I don't think either side wants stalemate."

(Dave Sagarin, October 4, 2010)