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November 2010

2010 Virginia 5th District Race: Unusual Republican turnout not seen in Perriello loss

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For many months, a widely accepted view of the dynamics of this election held that grass-roots anger would bring new, motivated voters who threatened all incumbents, including Tom Perriello. The sound of pitchforks being sharpened was heard throughout the land. Churlish "November is Coming" signs blossomed. Tea Party activists were said to be fired up and itching to vote.

The results, in the Fifth District of Virginia, just don't show any indication of increased voter turnout resulting from all that ferment. And the Tea Party guy, Jeff Clark, got just 4,973 votes--2.1%.

Comparing mid-term to mid-term elections

While the number of registered voters increased by 10% in the period, the Republican vote decreased by about 5%. That is, Robert Hurt won with 6,000 fewer votes than Virgil Goode won with in 2006. (A significant factor in 2006 was the inclusion on the ballot of the so-called Marriage Amendment, to increase the "social values vote." In the Fifth District, it was approved by over 64% of the voters.)

Perriello's personal popularity and the sophisticated get-out-the-vote effort this year did result in substantial increases. The Democratic vote yesterday, for the District as a whole, was 31% higher than 2006.

Votes for U.S. House of Representatives

Fifth District	2006	2008	2010
Republican	125,370	158,083	119,241
Democrat	84,682	158,810	110,561
Total	212,079	330,261	234,937
Turnout pct	53.4%	74.4%	52.6%

Charlottesville
Republican	2,880	3,733	2,654
Democrat	8,824	15,909	11,019
Total	11,827	20,122	13,787
Turnout pct	50.9%	70.2%	49.0%

Albemarle
Republican	16,106	18,407	16,581
Democrat	19,560	31,827	22,867
Total	36,012	51,170	39,943
Turnout pct	59.8%	76.1%	57.7%

Turnout is shown as a percent of Registered Voters. Totals include write-ins and minor party votes.

Turnout was down slightly, as a percentage of registered voters, for the District and for both Charlottesville City and Albemarle County.. The vote for Perriello among registered voters was 17% higher in the City and 11% higher in the County than the Democratic vote in 2006--less than the increase in the rest of the District, and indicative of a larger Democratic base to begin with.

All of which leads to a simple conclusion--the Fifth District as presently constituted is reliably Republican. Tom's election in 2008 was a stark anomaly.

Redistricting, to take place next year, will be led by a Republican-controlled House of Delegates, and reviewed by a Republican Attorney General and Republican Governor. So it is likely that the campaign to replace Congressman-elect Hurt in 2012 will take place on a very uneven playing field.

(Dave Sagarin, November 3, 2010)

Comments? Questions? Write me at george@loper.org.