George:

What we don't always appreciate is that the Republicans have a very effective GOTV machine in this district, and have had for a long time. In Southside Virginia, Republicans work long and hard for their candidates, and they were effective this time in places like Bedford and Campbell Counties. In those places, I have always said that Democrats don't have to win, but they do have to not get killed. Last time in Bedford, Tom got 38%; this time he got 31%. Last time in Campbell, he got 36%; this time it was 31%.

I figured, going in, that this race would more closely resemble (for turnout) the 2006 Webb-Allen race. In that year, Goode beat Al Weed by 125,370 to 84,682, or 59% to 40%. George Allen beat Jim Webb in the 5th with 114,572 to 96,153, or 54% to 45%. 210,725 people voted in that race. Tom's total this year of 110,591 would have won if the electorate had been the same. In fact, though, turnout was even higher than that in 2010 -- about 230,000 people came out. The turnout in the Fifth was higher than in any other Congressional District in the state.

My lessons --

1. Tom's campaign did the best they could in a strong anti-Democratic year. I don't think that there is anything more that or his campaign could have done. Particularly in the so-called "ground game" -- they did everything.

2. Hurt's ground game was also impressive.

3. The Democratic Party is stronger in many places now than it was in 2008, or 2006. But it is still weak in Bedford and Campbell Counties, where the electorate tends to be quite Republican. I say this not to denigrate the efforts of the good Democrats down there -- they work hard to do the best that they can. But it's tough sledding for Democrats.

Lloyd Snook (Electronic mail, November 4, 2010)