Dear George,

To the extent Democrats who read your stuff want to hear the truth about the new poll - assuming it is an accurate snapshot - showing Hurt leading 49-43, then they can read the following which addresses the politics of the situation, not the right or wrong of various policy choices. Rather, it is what we call "200 proof" political alcohol, and they don't sell at the ABC store or a private retailer if Governor McDonnell gets his way.

As Walter Cronkite would say, that's the way it is, like it or not. In a nutshell, to the extent my friend Howard Dean and other "progressives" [I have never fully understood these terms especially in Virginia] believe their strategy making Tom into their poster boy is helping, then they need to have their collective heads examined.

To be sure, Mr. Hurt is a rookie at this level, and in politics, "stuff happens" all the time, candidates screw-up, unexpected events intercede, and perhaps the independent in the race catches some fire.

But in what election strategists would call the "normative case", that is to say assuming nothing much happens except stuff within the normal standards of political deviation, anyone who has ever had any success advising candidates in tough races how to win can have only one reaction to the polling data assuming it is accurate:

Tom is in big trouble and to the extent he continues to follow the basic strategy being urged on him by the usual suspects, then he is playing right into Hurt's hands big time.

Tom has only a 40% certain vote at this point, even though he is far better known than Hurt and a genuinely decent guy who is very accessible to constituents. Tom's image badly trails Hurt's and Hurt has the advantage, if he has the money, to expand on this advantage since half the voters don't have any real impression of him.

If the poll is accurate, there is little Tom can do to materially increase his favorables since he appears to be very well-known. However, on the flip side, what do you think the odds are that those 90% of the likely voters who voice an opinion of him actually know how he voted on the key issues that will be defining the election. .

Bottom line: Tom needs an unconventional strategy at this point, one "outside of the box" as Senator Warner might say, he has to rethink how he sells what he has done in different political language if the poll is accurate.

It is really very simple: Tom needs to do whatever it takes to prevent Hurt from painting him as someone who went to Washington and basically voted the national Democratic line as a reliable team player for Pelosi's House majority.

Does Howard Dean and the progressive left really think the National Democratic image is what 5th District voters have in mind when they consider who they want, in a generic sense, to represent their interests in Washington?

Whatever Mr. Hurt's liabilities and lacks as a candidate, he is in the basic mainstream of the conservative side with little if any real fracturing on the Republican side. He figures to have sufficient money to make his case, which is going to be mostly anti-Tom in the last 45 days although he might make the mistake of not laying down a positive set of commercials before going hard negative.

While Democrats, as I have written, have a right to feel they are proof of the adage "no good deed goes unpunished", at the same time, this is like golf, you have to play the ball where it has landed. The public wants to give you some penalty strokes, complaining doesn't change the reality.

It isn't a question of fair or unfair, of what historians may say, what people may think in 2012 upon further reflection and experience, or how they might react knowing Warner also did this or that, he was Governor, his image is set differently.

To put it bluntly: There is no good news in these polling stats in the normative case for Tom. You don't have to be Dr. House to know that.

As a general rule, in this kind of political climate, the undecided voters break against the incumbent: and as I say, there are a lot more of them than the poll suggests once the candidates start attacking each other big time since Hurt doesn't have a record at the national level.

That being said, Tom can win, but this poll says he needs a new strategy.

It may be that his polls show something materially more favorable to his situation.

I seriously doubt it but hopefully that is the case. .

George, it may be that you and others don't see it this, and Tom's people don't see it this way.

My response: In a few short weeks, it is going to be on automatic pilot, few minds will be changeable.

So the time is long past to keep wearing any rose-colored glasses. .

Paul Goldman (Electronic mail, August 18, 2010)