Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds contended for the office of Attorney General four years ago, with McDonnell winning by a tiny fraction of one percent. Yet four weeks prior to that election, he led Deeds by about 8 points. Now they're contending for Governor.

A Mason-Dixon poll of 625 likely Virginia Voters was conducted last week, with a margin of error of +/- 4 points. Overall, McDonnell is favored by 48 percent to 40 percent for Deeds--the same as four years ago. Deeds is ahead in the close-in suburbs of Washington,. D.C. and holds a slight lead among women. He is strongly favored by African-American voters. But these strengths are more than offset by McDonnell's substantial lead among men and independent voters, and geographically in Richmond and the Shenandoah Valley, Southside and Southwest Virginia.

The difference from four years ago, making Deeds prospects darker, is that McDonnell is viewed favorably or very favorably by 45% of the respondents, where last time he was little known, and viewed favorably by perhaps half that percentage of likely voters.

The movement among independents, comparing the past few years to this one, is striking. Last year, President Obama received a majority of that vote while in this poll, Deeds is trailing 33 percent to 47. Deeds' campaiging against McDonnell's 1989 law school thesis has had but modest effect. And with no issues within the campaign igniting the electorate, those 12% undecided may simply decide to not vote. (Dave Sagarin, October 12, 2009)