Archives - Analysis of the Vote for Council
May 2009
2009 Charlottesville Democratic Caucus: Analysis of the Vote for Council
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The bottom line (in bold) is indeed the bottom line. These "precinct votes" are the votes the Democratic party has used for years to determine who is nominated. A candidate must win at least 50+ of these "precinct" votes (a majority) in order to be nominated.

"Precinct votes" are the proportion of each precinct's alloted votes that each candidate won. Allotted votes are based on the Democratic vote in a recent past general election -- in this case the Webb vote in 2006. There are 100 allotted votes total with each precinct's share based on its contribution to the Webb vote in 2006. "Precinct votes" are the proportion of the caucus (or ballot) vote in each precinct multiplied by the allotment. For example, Norris got 84 percent (.84) of the JPA vote. His portion of the 16.20 JPA allotment is 13.62.

(Figures in the tables have been rounded to 2 decimal places. Actual calculations are more precise.)

For City Council - First Count

Ballot Votes

(Number of 1st and 2nd ranks)

Norris

Szakos

Taliaferro

Total Ballots
Alumni

56

37

27

60

Carver

132

108

81

174

Clark

146

103

72

167

JPA

153

104

88

182

Recreation

329

282

146

423

Tonsler

78

66

38

100

Venable

133

101

72

165

Walker

234

173

160

321

Total

1261

974

684

1592

Proportion of Ballot Votes

Norris

Szakos

Taliaferro

Total Ballots
Alumni

0.93

0.62

0.45

60

Carver

0.76

0.62

0.47

174

Clark

0.87

0.62

0.43

167

JPA

0.84

0.57

0.48

182

Recreation

0.78

0.67

0.35

423

Tonsler

0.78

0.66

0.38

100

Venable

0.81

0.61

0.44

165

Walker

0.73

0.54

0.50

321

Total

0.79

0.61

0.43

1592

Precinct Votes

Norris

Szakos

Taliaferro

Total

Alumni

6.63

4.38

3.20

14.20

Carver

7.15

5.85

4.39

17.38

Clark

10.05

7.09

4.95

22.09

JPA

13.62

9.26

7.83

30.71

Recreation

15.98

13.69

7.09

36.76

Tonsler

5.94

5.03

2.90

13.87

Venable

10.40

7.90

5.63

23.92

Walker

10.74

7.94

7.34

26.02

Total

80.49

61.13

43.32

Allotment

Alumni

7.10

Carver

9.42

Clark

11.49

JPA

16.20

Recreation

20.54

Tonsler

7.62

Venable

12.90

Walker

14.73

(David RePass, May 11, 2009)


Comments? Questions? Write me at george@loper.org.