Archives - Analysis of the Vote for Sheriff
May 2009
2009 Charlottesville Democratic Caucus: Analysis of the Vote for Sheriff
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The bottom line (in bold) is indeed the bottom line. These "precinct votes" are the votes the Democratic party has used for years to determine who is nominated. A candidate must win at least 50+ of these "precinct" votes (a majority) in order to be nominated.

"Precinct votes" are the proportion of each precinct's alloted votes that each candidate won. Allotted votes are based on the Democratic vote in a recent past general election -- in this case the Webb vote in 2006. There are 100 allotted votes total with each precinct's share based on its contribution to the Webb vote in 2006. "Precinct votes" are the proportion of the caucus (or ballot) vote in each precinct multiplied by the allotment.

(Figures in the tables have been rounded to 2 decimal places. Actual calculations are more precise.)

Sheriff - First Count

Ballot Votes

(Number of 1st ranks)

M. Baird

J. Brown

P. Brown

Total Ballots
Alumni

20

36

6

62

Carver

55

97

27

179

Clark

59

99

13

171

JPA

85

75

21

181

Recreation

166

201

39

406

Tonsler

21

55

20

96

Venable

73

75

20

168

Walker

182

106

31

319

Total

661

744

177

1582

Proportion of Ballot Votes

M. Baird

J. Brown

P. Brown

Total Ballots
Alumni

0.32

0.58

0.10

62

Carver

0.31

0.54

0.15

179

Clark

0.35

0.58

0.08

171

JPA

0.47

0.41

0.12

181

Recreation

0.41

0.50

0.10

406

Tonsler

0.22

0.57

0.21

96

Venable

0.43

0.45

0.12

168

Walker

0.57

0.33

0.10

319

Total

0.42

0.47

0.11

Precinct Votes

M. Baird

J. Brown

P. Brown

Total / Allotment
Alumni

2.29

4.12

0.69

7.10

Carver

2.89

5.10

1.42

9.42

Clark

3.96

6.65

0.87

11.49

JPA

7.61

6.71

1.88

16.20

Recreation

8.40

10.17

1.97

20.54

Tonsler

1.67

4.37

1.59

7.62

Venable

5.61

5.76

1.54

12.90

Walker

8.40

4.89

1.43

14.73

Total

40.83

47.78

11.39

Sheriff - Runoff

Ballot Votes

(Number of 1st ranks for M. Baird and J. Brown plus second choices of P. Brown supporters)

M. Baird

J. Brown

P. Brown

Total Ballots

Alumni

22

39

0

61

Carver

63

111

0

174

Clark

62

107

0

169

JPA

89

87

0

176

Recreation

173

223

0

396

Tonsler

23

67

0

90

Venable

76

87

0

163

Walker

193

118

0

311

Total

701

839

0

1540

Proportion of Ballot Votes

M. Baird

J. Brown

P. Brown

Total Ballots

Alumni

0.36

0.64

0

61

Carver

0.36

0.64

0

174

Clark

0.37

0.63

0

169

JPA

0.51

0.49

0

176

Recreation

0.44

0.56

0

396

Tonsler

0.26

0.74

0

90

Venable

0.47

0.53

0

163

Walker

0.62

0.38

0

311

Total

0.46

0.54

0

1540

Precinct Votes

M. Baird

J. Brown

P. Brown

Total

Alumni

2.56

4.54

0

7.10

Carver

3.41

6.01

0

9.42

Clark

4.22

7.27

0

11.49

JPA

8.19

8.01

0

16.20

Recreation

8.97

11.57

0

20.54

Tonsler

1.95

5.67

0

7.62

Venable

6.01

6.89

0

12.90

Walker

9.14

5.59

0

14.73

Total

44.46

55.54

0

(David RePass, May 11, 2009)


Comments? Questions? Write me at george@loper.org.