On June 9, Democrats will select their candidates for statewide office in a primary. Turnout is expected to be low, and political sages agree that turnout is key for the contenders for governor, Deeds, Moran and McAuliffe. That is, each is intent on turning out his adherents, while delicately discouraging backers of the others.

A couple of reasons are offered for the possibility of lower than normal participation. One is fatigue--people (especially Democratic activists) invested an enormous amount of time and energy in the campaign last year, and are just not up to it this soon after. Another is that none of the candidates has created a yearning in the hearts of many Dems--'any of the above is OK with me' and even 'who's running?' are heard. The undecideds, in a recent poll, still are around 50%.

So what kind of turnout have we seen in Democratic primaries around here in the past, for comparison?

The recent Charlottesville Democrats' daylong "unassembled" caucus, or firehouse primary, saw a turnout of 1,592 voters. There were at the time 28,649 registered voters in the city, so turnout was a bit under 6%. This number may have been higher than otherwise because in addition to selecting two council candidates from three contenders, there was also an unusual contested campaign for sheriff with three aspirants for the nomination.

Before this year, a closed caucus was employed to select candidates -- everyone who might vote had to be in the room at the same time. In May of 2007, there were 431 Democrats in the room to select three candidates from among the five aspirants. With about 22,000 active voters in Charlottesville at the time, this is just under 2%.

In 2004, the caucus was held in February and the Council election in May. Five hundred thirty people turned out, or under 3%. (Comparisons with turnout in general elections would not be apt., but in the subsequent council election, with three seats to fill and six candidates on the ballot, turnout was about 27%.)

In 2005 there was a Democratic primary that included several hotly-contested local races, and local turnout for that was above 12%. In 2001, there was a Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor, and the local turnout was 5.6%. (Tim Kaine won).

An added fillip to the upcoming primary is the likelihood of Republicans, having decided their nominees in a convention the other day, voting in the primary to make mischief. (A recent poll suggests that about 20% of the voters in the primary could be Republicans crossing over--and many of them not to make mischief, but to support a favored candidate.) The question is, for which Democrat will they vote? The strategic benefit would come from supporting whichever Democrat they deem to be the weakest in the general election, but at this time that is far from clear.

(Dave Sagarin, June 1, 2009)