In statewide polls just before the primary, Creigh Deeds was favored by about 40% of likely voters. He wound up with 50% of the vote. The trend through the last three or four weeks of the campaign had been moving in that direction, and apparently many of the soft supporters of the others, plus most of the undecided voters, broke for Deeds. This was especially notable in Northern Virginia, home base for both Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe. And this is where Bob McDonnell had big margins in 2005, when he and Deeds contended for the office of Attorney General. Deeds lost that race statewide by 360 votes.

In polling among registered voters (not just likely Democratic Primary voters) leading up to the primary, McDonnell, the Republican candidate, had a substantial lead in each head-to-head matchup, and consistently led Deeds by the widest margin. However, in a Rasmussen poll the day after the primary, Deeds was favored 47 to 41%, with only 10% undecided. Deeds is unequivocally backed by 89% of Democrats, while McDonnell has strong support from 78% of Republicans. While a bump like this is natural with all the publicity given to the primary, the core support for Deeds seems strong and the party unified behind him.

Statewide turnout was six and a half percent, on par with previous non-presidential primaries. But Charlottesville turnout was forecast at around 5% and turned out to be 11%. Albemarle County turnout was 10%, also well above what history would have given. Deeds got 76% of the Charlottesville vote and nearly 80% in Albemarle. So it seems that the higher-than-expected turnout was motivated by the Deeds.candidacy.

There were rumors abounding that lots of Republicans would participate in the primary to put a stick in the spokes by voting for the Democrat who would be weakest in the general election--speculation centered on them voting for McAuliffe. McAuliffe certainly seemed a soft target, with no history in Virginia politics, the personal manner of a pitchman and generic Democratic positions on easy issues. But there doesn't seem to be any evidence of much meddling, unless they voted for Deeds on mistaken assumptions.

The conventional wisdom is that primary voters are the activists--among Democrats, the liberals. Yet Moran, with what are clearly the most liberal positions on issues of concern, polled third. It seems that Obama has confirmed for large swaths of Democrats that idealism can be tempered by political pragmatism without too much loss.

(Dave Sagarin, June 12, 2009)