A poll by Public Policy Polling done last week among people who are likely voters in this year's general election has all three Republican candidates leading. McDonnell leads Deeds 49 to 43, Bolling leads Wagner 46 to 40, and Cuccinelli leads Shannon 45 to 38. Margin of error about 4%, with 617 respondents--PPP employs a telephone touch-tone response mechanism.

You may recall that shortly after the June 9 Democratic primary, Creigh Deeds led Bob McDonnell around 47 to 41 percent, but in head-to-head matchups leading up to the primary, McDonnell consistently led all Democrats, by margins similar to the present number.

But

The panel, self-described, included 19% liberals, 42% moderates and 28% conservatives. Party affiliation was Democrat 34%, Republican 33% and 33% Other. Groups under-represented in this polling include younger voters and African-Americans, both groups more likely to vote Democratic.

At this point four years ago, McDonnell led Deeds (for Attorney General) by a comparable number, and wound up winning by three one-hundredths of one percent.

At this point four years ago Kilgore led Kaine. Allen led Webb by more than ten points.

A Referendum on Obama?

It is commonly held that this election (and New Jersey's, the only other gubernatorial election this year) will be contested as a referendum on the Obama presidency and the state of the economy. A recent poll by the same firm shows President Obama to be not all that popular in Virginia right now. Although his national approval is in the low to mid 60's, in Virginia among likely voters, overall approval of his presidency is just 48%, with 46% disapproving.

Within Obama's numbers, the polarization is startling. 95% of Democrats approve, while just 9% of Republicans finding him praiseworthy. The reason for the low overall mark is that self-described Independents disapprove the president's performance 52 - 38.

So how tightly should Deeds cling to the national Dems? One view would be stick to Virginia issues and keep the big guys out of it. On the other hand, getting the president and prominent national figures into the campaign might stir those in the base who turned out last year but otherwise might not vote in an off-year election--and who are not included in polls of 'likely voters.'.

Another point, not discernable in the polling data, is the difficulty McDonnell will face, with national-level Republicans pretty unpopular right now. He has already discounted the desireability of assistance from Sarah Palin, and who else is there?

(Dave Sagarin, July 8, 2009)