In a PublicPolicyPolling survey completed Monday among likely voters, Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 51% to 37%, with a margin of error a bit above 4%. The Republican advantage extends down the ticket. In the Lieutenant Governor race Bill Bolling leads Jody Wagner 48 - 34, and Ken Cuccinelli leads Steve Shannon 45 - 32.

A similar poll, by SurveyUSA done in the same time frame and also selecting likely voters, has McDonnell besting Deeds 55-41. The balance of this article is drawn from the PPP results--there is little difference in the cross-tabs.

Among those surveyed, people who said they had voted for McCain outnumbered Obama voters 52% - 41, while you will recall that Obama carried the state, so these results must be viewed with some suspicion. But they are what we have. "Likely Voters" in this year's election are thought by the pollsters to include fewer people, by percentage. who were motivated last year by Obama's candidacy. It is up to Deeds (and perhaps Obama himself) to motivate young people and African-Americans to turn out once again in last year's numbers..

In this poll, Creigh Deeds is viewed favorably by 43% overall (and by only 75% of Democrats) while McDonnell is viewed favorably by 54% of those interviewed, including 92% of self-described Republicans.

By region, Deeds does best in area code 703 (57% would vote for him) while McDonnell's greatest strength is in 540 (59%) -- each doing best in the other's home territory.

The good news for Deeds is that 41% of the respondents consider themselves politically moderate, and among these self-described moderates, he is viewed favorably by 58% while McDonnell is viewed favorably by only 39%. Deeds is also strong on the flip side of that tab, with unfavorables at 21% while 35% of moderates have an unfavorable opinion of McDonnell. The most marked division between the two candidates for governor is along racial lines. African-American respondents favor Deeds 64% to 3% for McDonnell, with 33% undecided.

So there is a lot more potential for Deeds, among undecideds, moderates and Blacks, than for the other guy.

It must be noted that, while not probed in this poll, it is quite likely that the larger events of the day--economic uncertainty, unresolved foreign adventures, turmoil over healthcare reform and Democratic intra-party bickering--enter into voters' expressions of views about the candidates. Even though the campaigns try to focus on Virginia, the wheels of national politics are grinding them.

(Dave Sagarin, August 5, 2009)

Updated August 7