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George, On last evening’s News Hour, two political analysts presented their
estimates of which states would probably go for McCain, which states for
Obama and which states are “toss ups.” See The “toss up” states were NH, PA, OH, MI, WI, IA, CO, NM, NV and VA. The basis for these analysts’ conclusions was a mish-mash of irrelevant data from the primaries, data from long-ago elections which have no bearing on what is happening today, some anecdotal, ad hominem data on recent Senatorial or Gubernatorial elections in certain states, and hunch. I am particularly amazed this year by the number of analysts who think you can read voting intent in November (when a Republican will be running against a Democrat) by looking at primary election contests between two Democrats. I have done a quick scientific analysis of what is likely to happen in November. My analysis is not based on any current polls because the campaign between Obama and McCain has just started. Tens of millions of potential voters did not vote in the primaries. They will not become engaged until the fall campaign. Millions who will vote in November know little or nothing about the new kid on the block. Current polls that match up Obama with McCain are jokes. My analysis is based on an understanding of the forces that move voters in one partisan direction or the other. Some election years these forces are very strong, in other years they are weak. The last two elections were of this weak, “static” type so we have become lulled into thinking the red and blue electoral map is rather fixed. Just remember there can be landslides if all the forces (candidates and issues) are in one partisan direction – LBJ landslide in 1964, Reagan in 1984. This year there is a perfect storm of issues that would strongly incline voters to vote Democratic: the economy, jobs, wages, gas prices, an endless war, health care insurance, etc. etc. The “force” is with us. Unless George Bush can bring gas prices down, restore outsourced jobs, bring peace to Iraq, and provide universal health care coverage in the next few months, these issues will be there in November to cause voters to vote for the party that they feel will address these huge problems. (The last time there was such a perfect storm of issues – but at that time the Democrats were in power – was in 1994 when the Republicans took over Congress in a big way.) There are also two new factors that have never been present in any election and therefore make previous election returns less useful for prediction. These factors are the huge surge of young, new voters who finally see a political leader (Obama) who inspires them. There is also the highly organized army of Obama volunteers that can be found in most states – an organization that Karl Rove would envy. These powerful forces that will work to the advantage of the Democrats this year are the kinds of forces that can turn many red states blue, especially states that are not too red to begin with. Putting these factors together, here are my predictions for electoral votes come November. (One of my major motivations for doing this analysis is to put my predictions on public record. You can check back in George’s archives come November as see how good my analysis is.) States that are “Sure Things” – will definitely vote for
Obama. CA, CT, States that will Probably vote for Obama: AR, FL, IA, MN, MO, NV, NH,
Additional “Probably vote Obama” states (added because they
have unusually high proportions of people in the 18-24 age group): CO, GA,
Toss up states: AZ, AL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, SC, TN, WV Sure Republican states: AK, ID, MT, NE, ND, OK, SD, TX, UT, WY (70  In this analysis, I have not factored in attitudes toward candidates. Here in June, months away from the fall campaign, I have no idea how voters will react to McCain and Obama once they get to know them. (Remember, tens of millions have not yet become engaged in the campaign.) My analysis assumes that the number of voters who like each candidate will equal the number of voters who dislike them. The candidates will net out to be about equal, making candidates a null factor. That is the scientist in me – I must use a null hypothesis if I have no data an attitudes toward candidates. Personally, I can’t help but think that if Obama keeps “firing up” more and more voters with his extraordinary stump speech, and he keeps addressing the issues as he has, he will be a major force in the Democratic direction (vis-à-vis McCain who can “fire up” no one, not even himself, and sounds at times like Herbert Hoover on the economy.) Most of the “toss up” states could go to Obama and even some of the Sure McCain ones. Landslide anyone? David RePass (Electronic mail, June 10, 2008)
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