George,

If Barack Obama does not win the Democratic party nomination, Rudy Giuliani will probably be the next President. Of course it is far to early to make predictions but everybody is doing it, so I might as well join in. In a survey conducted by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake (reported in the Sunday Washington Post on page 2), Giuliani beats Clinton by 10 points -- 49% to 39%. Giuliani comes out only 1 point ahead of Obama -- 41% to 40%. And we are talking here about a relatively unknown Obama. The survey was conducted in 31 swing congressional districts.

The American people are desperate to get away from politics as usual and Obama offers them that possibility. Clinton carries far too much baggage and is seen as a Washington operative. Giuliani offers strong leadership -- a quality voters always look for.

People keep wondering why Barack Obama is not making gains in the national polls. Why would he be expected to make gains? He is running no national ads, and it is difficult for anyone to stand out in crowded forums where answers are limited to 30 seconds. Obama is concentrating on Iowa and New Hampshire -- which is smart politics. He draws large, enthusiastic crowds and is running neck and neck in polls in those states. In national polls, they might as well ask: "Here is a list of candidates. Who do you know that you might like?"

Is it any surprise that the well-know candidates in both parties -- Clinton, Giuliani and the actor -- are leading? Wait until votes are actually cast in the first primaries in the small states where Obama is getting to be known.

Let's pick a winner this time.

David RePass (Electronic mail, September 24, 2007)

Note: See also David RePass Comments on Weak-Kneed Democrats