George,

Potts could cook Kaine. All indications are that the Kaine-Kilgore race is neck and neck. Just 1% or 2% could make the difference between winning and losing. The director of the Mason-Dixon poll, J. Bradford Coker, says (http://loper.org/~george/archives/2005/Oct/899.html) that Potts is “seen as not hurting either major party candidate more than the other”. Coker bases that conclusion on the fact that Potts has equal support (3 percent) from both Republicans and Democrats. This overlooks the most important component of Potts’ support – the Independents.

Coker’s poll shows that 10 percent of Independents support Potts. The key question is: who would these Independents vote for if Potts were not in the race? Coker’s poll indicates that Independents as a whole tend to lean toward Kaine. If Potts were not in the race, Kaine would gain disproportionately from Independents -- adding perhaps 2% to his total. Looking at the other side of the coin, with Potts in the race, Kaine is hurt by the Independents who are drawn to Potts – voters who might otherwise be inclined to vote for him.

One would hope that Potts would decide to withdraw from the race. By staying in, Potts gives Kilgore -- the guy who would not give him a chance to debate – a better shot at winning.

David RePass (electronic mail, October 23, 2005)