"George,

As a rule, I'm willing to follow Rich Collins wherever he leads. Even when we disagree he's often right.

But not this time.

He says: 'I think the American people recognize that leadership includes consultation, respect for the views of other nations, and most of all, a realistic assessment of consequences, and not some sort of rah-rah, simplistic optimism parading as leadership.'

What does the evidence say?

An analysis of election returns shows that 60% of active voters are blind loyalists. They will vote for their party no matter who the candidate or the opponent is. Each party gets half that vote. An analysis of voter surveys shows that 30% of the voters are the thoughtful people Rich describes. The majority of them are candidate oriented and see-saw between the parties.

The remainder are the ones who usually decide the race, and they must be reached emotionally.

In Lyndon's day it was the Democrats who understood that. Goldwater conservatives ran on their faith in the good sense of the voting public to grasp issues, and the Dems creamed him by raising fears Goldwater would blow us all up. Now it's us proclaiming faith in electorate braininess and the Republicans making emotional appeals. We don't HAVE to lose, but the past is prologue and history says we will.

When all seemed lost for the GOP and they were written off as the minority party forever, (ah, bliss) along came Kevin Phillips in 1969 and his book "The Emerging Republican Majority." There he forecast a GOP majority based on making emotional appeals to the South and West. Having nothing more to lose, the Republicans tried yahoo populism and proved Kevin right.

The GOP could not win when it was a one-dimensional party of idealogues. Neither can the Dems win as a party of idealists. We see the crying need for reforms but the nation has become convinced reform by Democrats means some must lose so others can win.

We can prove that's not so but thus far we failed. Perhaps having to sit through another repulsive administration will spur a thoughtful Democrat to write a thoughtful book analyzing the mistakes we made, and creating a plan for reform that will not set off alarm bells in voters living comfortable lives.

Republican conservatives were beaten soundly enough to accept the sacrifices needed to become the majority party. Will that work for Democrats? Despite the recent string of GOP-dominated congresses, it remains to be seen if trouncing after trouncing can enlighten Liberals.

Political purists remind me of that poem in my 1953 driver education manual. 'He was right, dead right, as he sped along, but he's just as dead as if he'd been wrong.'

- Rey Barry (electronic mail, September 25, 2004)