Dear George,

greetings from san francisco where more than 70% of the bay area will vote for john kerry. i was referred to your website by rich collins and would like to expand on his remarks and give you a western perspective on the election as well. Rich's comparison of Abe Lincoln with John Kerry is very apt. Because we live in a very male-dominated media world (even the women on tv are uniformly tough and masculine!), abe would have a hard time getting elected today. so what we have to fight more than anything is a media perception of john kerry. as long as he holds his own in the debates which are more about perception and personality than issues, we have a good chance of winning the election. i base this on some simple calculations : the new york times recently reported on new voter registration in florida and ohio; on balance, the democrats registered 400,000 more voters than the republicans did in both those swing states.

those 400,000 constitute 5% of the expected vote in florida and ohio. i cannot believe that there are more than l0% of the electorate in swing state that are "undecided" or "independent". So , IF WE GET OUT ALL OUR VOTES, those extra 4% can nullify a bush lead in the polls - which are undoubtedly inaccurate because new voters and young voters (where democrats have the edge) will not answer to survery questions. We have a real chance of winning the state of nevada and my friends in oregon tell me kerry wins there even though it will be close.

Two more major considerations: events in iraq and afghanistan will have an effect on the electorate. the election in afghanistan may well turn out to be a disaster. remember, "october" surprises on the security front are highly unlikely because our intelligence community is fighting mad at george bush and will leak any but the most secret plots. finally, if democrats want to hedge their bets, then put some money into senate races: i have contributed to ken salazar in colorado who has a good chance at an open seat; ken knowles in alaska who is running neck and neck with murkowski's daughter; obama in illinois who is a sure winner; betty castor in florida who has a great shot at beating martinez; and am looking hard at louisiana where a december runoff will hopefully get us a seat; last but not least, brad carson in oklahoma has a great chance of beating dr. coburn who has been busy sterilizing young women and promulgating the death penalty for anyone performing an abortion. greetings to all my many friends (all of them democrats!) in the charlottesville area - i had a great 30 years.

- rolf benzinger (electronic mail, September 28, 2004)

Editor's note: capitalization is as the writer made it.