George,

Last fall I was reading in the European press, (le Monde and the Economist, I think, featured articles on this subject) that Europe has been moving solidly to the right and is expected to do so for some time to come. For those who believe in this theory, the victory of the Socialists in Spain just a few weeks ago was apparently a fluke caused by the emotional fallout from the terrorist bombings in Madrid. After all, the majority of European nations are currently governed by the right. Germany, now run by Gerhard Schröder and the center-left Social Democrats, is going through a period of malaise similar to that of America and Britain before the election of conservatives Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, respectively. Just a few months ago this malaise translated into a solid defeat of the Social Democrats in regional elections and will probably allow the Christian Democrats (center-right) to take the German Chancellorship in 2006. However, the election results of last night's French regional and cantonal elections is the second major victory for the European left in less than a month, and this time it had nothing to do with the war in Iraq.

Before the election, the right held 13 out of 22 regions while the left held nine.

Post-election, the left now controls 21 of the 22 regions, leaving only traditionally conservative Alsace governed by the right. Some regions, such as Franche Comté, haven’t been governed by the left in almost a century--or even two centuries, as is the case with the Pays-de-la-Loire region. To give an idea of the major political shift that has just taken place, it would be like the Democrats taking control of 47 governorships and state legislatures in the U.S. in one blow.

There are several reasons for this historic victory for the left.

One is that the French public is expressing its discontent with the way the center-right government of Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin is handling unemployment, overhauling social security and decentralization.

A second reason is higher voter turnout – up 6% from the last time regional elections were held in 1998, and there were a good number of first-time voters.

A third reason, as some on the right argue, is that the far-right Front National party acted as a spoiler in a few of the regional elections, splitting the vote on the right. But this happened in only a few regions, and in many of the regions where the left won, they had a clear majority. But even in the regions where the FN acted as a spoiler, they attracted those dissatisfied with the current government as well.

The fourth and most important reason for the left’s victory is that it learned from its humiliating defeat in the presidential election of 2002. There was rancorous division amongst the Socialists, the Greens, the Communists, and the Worker’s Party, and as a result they paid for their disunity in 2002. This year everyone on the left was determined to turn the defeat of 2002 into victory in 2004. This past Sunday has already been dubbed “le 21 avril à l’inverse”, meaning April 21st, 2002 turned upside-down. It seems the left has reversed April 21st, 2002, at least on a regional basis. The left united under one banner in the second round of the 2004 elections and were rewarded with a crushing victory.

The headlines this morning in the French press seems to underline the fact that the results of the elections have severely sobered Chirac and Raffarin. They're certainly taking a second look at what to do next. But the next presidential and federal legislative elections aren’t until 2007, and public opinion could turn against the left in three short years, especially if unemployment remains high.

It’s too early to say if the pendulum of public sentiment is swinging to the left again in Europe, but the past month certainly has seen a reversal of the march to the right in European politics.

- Joey Cheek (electronic mail, March 29, 2004)