% of Votes, Delegates: Kerry 38, 17; Edwards 32, 15; Dean 18, 7; Gephardt 11; 0; Others 1; 0

Turnout total: early estimates near 125,000 Larry Sabato and the Crystal Ball Team (electronic mail, January 20, 2004)

% of Votes, Delegates: Kerry 38.53, 13; Dean 26.29, 9; Clark 12.39, 0; Edwards 12.06, 0; Lieberman 8.58, 0; Kucinich 1.41; 0; Sharpton .16; 0

Turnout total: early estimates 214,346 (with 97% of precincts reporting) - 22.2% eligible voters, 31.1% of registered voters Larry Sabato and the Crystal Ball Team (electronic mail, January 28, 2004)

"Edwards said he must finish at least third in the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary, where polls show Dean leading Sen. John. F. Kerry (Mass.), a fellow New Englander. A week later, on Feb. 3, Edwards will face what he acknowledged will be the most critical early test of his campaign, one he said will determine whethere he will survive deeper into the nominating process.

'Oh, I need to win South Carolina,' he said of the first primary in his native South.'" (Edward Walsh, The Washington Post, November 12, 2003)

With 97% of the precincts reporting:

John Kerry, 43%, 30 delegates
Wesley Clark, 27%, 22 delegates
Howard Dean, 14%%, 3 delegate
John Edwards, 7.0%, 0 delegates

Larry Sabato and Crystal Ball Team, electronic mail, February 4, 2004

With 702 of 742 precincts reporting:

Joe Lieberman, 14,474 votes, 6.5%, 0 delegates
Dennis Kucinich, 3,613 votes, 1.6%, 0 delegates
Al Sharpton, 1,094 votes, 0.5%, 0 delegates
Dick Gephardt, 697 votes, 0.3%, 0 delegates
Carol Moseley Braun, 288 votes, 0.1%, 0 delegates
Lyndon LaRouche, 253 votes, 0.1%, 0 delegates
Dianne Barker, 226 votes, 0.1%, 0 delegates
Bill Wyatt, 191 votes, 0.1% 0 delegates
Keith Brand, 176 votes, 0.1%, 0 delegates
Fern Penna, 167 votes, 0.1%, 0 delegates
William Barchilon, 110 votes, 0.0%, 0 delegates
Evelyn L. Vitullo, 103 votes, 0.0%, 0 delegates
Huda Muhammad, 98 votes, 0.0% 0 delegates
Ray Caplette, 57 votes, 0.0%, 0 delegates

Albuquerque Journal, February 4, 2004

With 304 0f 304 precincts reporting:

John Kerry, 16,729 votes, 50.5%, 14 delegates
Joe Lieberman, 3,683 votes, 11.1%, 0 delegates
John Edwards, 3,657 votes, 11.0%, 0 delegates
Howard Dean, 3,439 votes, 10.4%, 0 delegates
Wesley Clark, 3,145 votes, 9.5%, 0 delegates
Al Sharpton, 1,885 votes, 5.7%, 1 delegate
Dennis Kucinich, 343 votes, 1.0%, 0 delegates
Dick Gephardt, 187 votes, 0.6%, 0 delegates
Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr., 78 votes, 0.2%, 0

Albuquerque Journal, February 4, 2004

With 100% precincts reporting:

John F. Kerry, 51 %, 36 delegates
John Edwards, 25%, 20 delegates
Howard Dean, 9%, 0 delegates
Wesley K. Clark, 4%, 0 delegates

Larry Sabato and Crystal Ball Team, electronic mail, February 4, 2004

With 3,831 of 4,002 precincts reporting:

Joe Lieberman, 14,614 votes, 3.6%, 0 delegates
Al Sharpton, 11,981 votes, 2.9%, 0 delegates
Dick Gephardt, 8,163 votes, 2.0%, 0 delegates
Dennis J. Kucinich, 4,414 votes, 1.1%, 0 delegates
Uncommitted, 4,339 votes, 1.1%, 0 delegates
Lyndon H. LaRouche, 1,033 votes, 0.3%, 0 delegates
Carol Moseley Braun, 1,006 votes, 0.2%, 0 delegates
Fern Penna, 337 votes, 0.1%, 0 delegates

Albuquerque Journal, February 4, 2004

With 96% precincts reporting:

John Kerry, 42%, 10 delegates

Wesley Clark, 21%, 7 delegates

Howard Dean, 17%, 4 delegates

John Edwards, 11%, 0 delegates

Larry Sabato and Crystal Ball Team, electronic mail, February 4, 2004

With 121 of 169 precincts reporting:

Dennis Kucinich, 3,481 votes, 5.4%, 0 delegates

Joe Lieberman, 1,711 votes, 2.6%, 0 delegates

Dick Gephardt, 581 votes, 0.9%, 0 delegates

Uncommitted, 382 votes, 0.6%, 0 delegates

Fern Penna, 52 votes, 0.1%, 0 delegates

Albuquerque Journal, February 4, 2004

With 100% of the precincts reporting:

John Kerry, 5316 votes, 51%, 10 delegates
Wesley Clark, 2502 votes, 24%, 4 delegates
Howard Dean, 1231 votes, 12%
John Edwards, 1025 votes, 10%
Dennis Kucinich, 308 votes, 3%
Joe Lieberman, 98 votes, 1%
Al Sharpton, 28 votes, 0%

North Dakota Democratic Party, February 4, 2004

With 2,236 of 2,237 precincts reporting:

Wesley Clark, 90,469 votes, 29.9%, 15 delegates
John Edwards, 89,194 votes, 29.5% ,13 delegates
John Kerry, 81,012 votes, 26.8%, 12 delegates
Joe Lieberman, 19,674 votes, 6.5%, 0 delegates
Howard Dean, 12,719 votes, 4.2%, 0 delegates
Al Sharpton, 3,938 votes, 1.3%, 0 delegates
Dennis Kucinich, 2,544 votes, 0.8%, 0 delegates
Dick Gephardt, 1,889 votes, 0.6%, 0 delegates
Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr., 689 votes, 0.2%, 0 delegates

Albuquerque Journal, February 4, 2004

With 1,925 of 2,008 precincts reporting:

John Edwards, 126,320 votes, 45.0%, 28 delegates
John Kerry, 84,872 votes, 30.2%, 17 delegates
Al Sharpton, 26,946 votes, 9.6%, 0 delegates
Wesley Clark, 20,189 votes, 7.2%, 0 delegates
Howard Dean, 13,055 votes, 4.7%, 0 delegates
Joe Lieberman, 6,853 votes, 2.4%, 0 delegates
Dennis Kucinich, 1,246 votes, 0.4%, 0 delegates
Dick Gephardt, 604 votes, 0.2%, 0 delegates
Carol Moseley Braun, 569 votes, 0.2%, 0 delegates

Albuquerque Journal, February 4, 2004

"Next month, voters in the Michigan Democratic primary will have the option of casting their votes from their homes over the Internet. Critics of such voting raise the possibilities of fraud, privacy violations, vote buying and coercion.

But the sharpest critique of the Michigan plan came from the Rev. Al Sharpton, a Democratic candidate for president, who called it a "high-tech poll tax."

"If someone can vote in the warmth of their living room, but a grandmother has to go down four flights of stairs and into the cold," he said, "that's not an even playing field."

People with Internet access at home do tend to be richer and whiter than those who do not. And the Supreme Court has ruled that making polling places in the physical world inconvenient for black voters can violate the law.

Does that same analysis apply to Internet voting, which supplements rather than displaces traditional voting? Legal experts say that the question is an open one but that Mr. Sharpton's point might well have legal force.

"If you're trying to make turnout as easy as possible, it's a good thing," Prof. Richard L. Hasen of Loyola Law School said of Internet voting. "If you're trying to ensure equality of access,'' he added, ''you have to take some additional steps" to make sure it does not disproportionately benefit one group.

Heather K. Gerken, a law professor at Harvard, also noted the value of leaving home to vote. In what she called an increasingly isolated society, she said she would allow Internet voting, but only in public places." (Adam Liptak, The New York Times, January 18, 2004)

 With 99% precincts reporting [delegates,%]:

With 80% of precincts reporting (votes, percentage, and delegates):

"Maine has 24 pledged and 11 unpledged delegates. Of the 24 pledged delegates, 16 are district-level delegates (based on results of a given district's binding primary), five are at-large delegates and three are "party leader and elected official" (PLEO) delegates. Of the 11 unpledged delegates, 10 are PLEO delegates and one is an add-on selected at the state Democratic convention on May 22, 2004" (CNN, February 9, 2004)

With 98% of precincts reporting (% of vote, # of delegates):

(Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, February 11, 2004)

With 100% of precincts reporting (votes, percentage):

Total Votes Cast Statewide: 392,688

Total Votes Cast in Charlottesville: 3,914 or 20% of registered voters (compared with 2,768 votes cast in the 2000 Virginia Republican Presidential Primary).

Total Votes Cast in Albemarle: 7,229 or 13.3% of registered voters (compared with 5,965 votes cast in the 2000 Virginia Republican Presidential Primary in District 7 and 3,916 votes cast in District 5)

"Based on the primary results, Virginia allocates 82 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July in Boston; 14 others go unpledged" (The Washington Post, February 5, 2004)

In Virginia, Kerry received 54 delgates from the primary, Edwards received 28 delegates, while the remaining candidates received no delegates (Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, February 11, 2004)

"Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean implored Wisconsin Democrats on Monday to 'keep this debate alive' with a victory in the February 17th primary, even as he suddenly revoked an earlier statement that he would drop his presidential bid if he loses here." (John F. Harris, The Washington Post, February 10, 2004)

Howard Dean and John Edwards are hoping for a strong showing on Tuesday to revive their challenges against John F. Kerry, the leader in the race for primary delegates. Delgates at state in Wisconsin: 72. (The Washington Post, February 15, 2004)

With 100% of precincts reporting: Kerry received 40% of the vote and 30 delegates, Edwards received 34% of the vote and 24 delegates, Dean received 18% of the vote and 13 delegates, and Kucinich received 3% of the vote and 0 delegates.

"With John Edwards' strong-though-losing showing in Wisconsin, the Democratic contest will clearly last at least until the Super-Primary on March 2. But, Kerry has still won 15 of 17 battles, with Edwards having captured just one state: his native South Carolina. Moreover, the ground is more fertile for Kerry than Edwards on March 2: the ten states voting are mainly Northern/Western and liberal, with the prominent exception of Georgia: CA, CT, GA, MD, MA, MN, NY, OH, RI, and VT. Yet even in the Peach State, Kerry has a powerful weapon: former U.S. Senator Max Cleland. Most Democrats are still furious about his defeat for reelection in November 2002, and they may be inclined to listen to him now.

With Dean sidelined and the other serious candidates now out, and Sharpton and Kucinich mere sideshows as always, the showdown for the Democratic nomination is between Kerry and Edwards. This is what Edwards has always wanted: a one-on-one, mano a mano fight. But, it cannot be the way Edwards had hoped it might be. This is not one-on-one, but a one-and-a-half candidate finale. And the whole almost always beats the half.

History tells us that Wisconsin has seen several close presidential elections--both primary and general--so this recent result should be viewed in perspective. To that end, the Crystal Ball reminds you of three of the closest contests: first, Bill Clinton's defeat of CA Gov. Jerry Brown in 1992 by 21,000 votes. Next up is Jimmy Carter's surprise primary win over Mo Udall in 1976 by 7,500 votes. Lastly--and closest--is Al Gore's 2000 defeat of George W. Bush in the general election, where the margin rested at a mere 5,700 votes.

For the moment, though, the Crystal Ball celebrates the extension of the campaign for two more weeks, not unlike students who welcome snow days. And that's the real reason John Edwards is getting what he wants. Every print reporter, TV newsman, political analyst, and electoral junkie--INCLUDING The Crystal Ball--wished hard for a longer primary season, Terry McAuliffe and his frontloading be damned! Hooray for the contrarian voters of the Badger State!" (Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, February 18, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, February 25, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

 

Candidates	Votes	%
Sen. John F. Kerry	288,448	47%
Sen. John Edwards	256,832	42%
Al Sharpton	38,474	6%
Howard Dean	11,126	2%
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	7,617	1%
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	5,581	1%
Gen. Wesley K. Clark	4,161	1%
Carol Moseley Braun	3,682	1%
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	2,324	0%

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

 

Candidates	Votes	%
Sen. John F. Kerry	1,871	50%
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	981	26%
Sen. John Edwards	512	14%
Howard Dean	323	9%
Uncommitted	35	1%
Gen. Wesley K. Clark	33	1%
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	5	0%

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

 

Candidates	Votes	%
Sen. John F. Kerry	274,198	60%
Sen. John Edwards	118,362	26%
Al Sharpton	20,870	5%
Howard Dean	11,665	3%
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	8,325	2%
Uncommitted	8,041	2%
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	5,000	1%
Gen. Wesley K. Clark	4,029	1%
Mildred Glover	3,802	1%
Carol Moseley Braun	2,669	1%
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	1,978	0%
Lyndon H. LaRouche	1,481	0%

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

 

Candidates	Votes	%
Sen. John F. Kerry	440,929	72%
Sen. John Edwards	108,740	18%
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	25,010	4%
Howard Dean	17,010	3%
Al Sharpton	6,097	1%
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	5,435	1%
Uncommitted	3,914	1%
Gen. Wesley K. Clark	3,124	1%
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	1,455	0%
Lyndon H. LaRouche	974	0%
Carol Moseley Braun	948	0%

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 10, 2004)

EDITOR'S NOTE: Sen. John Edwards does not appear on the Vermont ballot, but voters may vote for him as a write-in candidate. Write-in votes will not be available until Wednesday. (Associated Press, Washington Post, March 4, 2004)

"If any question why we died, Tell them, because our fathers lied" (Rudyard Kipling, Common Form, The Years Between, 1919, Bartleby.com, 2004))

Rudyard Kipling's American home, just outside of Brattleboro, Vt is available for overnight accomodations [see Kipling's Bedtime Stories], assuming the nomination is not wrapped up by then.

Candidates	Votes	%
Sen. John F. Kerry	11,397	48%
Howard Dean	7,060	30%
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	1,927	8%
Sen. John Edwards	1,571	7%
Uncommitted	800	3%
Gen. Wesley K. Clark	768	3%
Al Sharpton	19	0%
Other	0	0%

(Associated Press, Washington Post, date uncertain)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 10, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 10, 2004)

(Associated Press, Washington Post, March 10, 2004)

(The Green Papers, April 19, 2004)