George,

According to Zogby pollsters, Kerry maintains a four-point lead over Bush (47-43). GOP pollster Rasmussen says the election is tied at 46%, indicating Bush has made some progress in the past week in his daily surveys.

That seems incredible to me, probably because as a partisan Democrat I can’t believe the swift boat campaign being waged against Kerry is causing voters anywhere to shift to Bush. The New York Times yesterday had a fulsome report that demolished Kerry’s detractors as paid prevaricators. Other major media broadsides have been fired from the Washington Post and Chicago Tribune.

The Kerry camp couldn’t have a better issue to run on. Those funding the swift boat crew are close friends and contributors to GWB from Texas. Calling attention to Kerry's military record only plays against the record of GWB.

When Rasmussen adds up the electoral votes, he gets 223 for Kerry and 183 for Bush. When I add them up, though, it is 273 for Kerry to 223 for Bush. 270 are needed to elect. Forty-two votes are in states too close to call.

The upcoming Republican convention is a wild card. Probably not much defined as newsworthy will happen inside, apart from probably a stellar performance from Governor Schwarzengropper. The media will be tuned into the demonstrations outside as much as the rhetoric inside. If the demonstrations get out of hand and the public (a) sees police brutality, it could evoke sympathy for the Democrats; but if the public (b) sees demonstrators attacking police, it could evoke a law-and-order response favorable to the Republicans. Mayor Bloomberg can be counted on to deny demonstrators the right to reasonable access to the convention area, a step certain to inflame some protestors and ignite violence.

One large protest group seeking access to Central Park this week was denied a permit on grounds their numbers would ruin the grass. Trampling civil liberties is okay, though. It will be an interesting week.

Sherwood Ross (electronic mail, August 21, 2004)