George,

In terms of political history, there is really no precedent for believing someone like General Clark has any realistic chance of being elected President, assuming he could get the Democratic nomination. Thus, it is surely curious to hear him touted as the most "electable" candidate, at least from a historical perspective.

Three general things work against Mr. Clark as they have against those similarly situated. Jerry Ford almost pulled off the upset of the century by raising the "character issue" against Jimmy Carter, who at least had four year term as Governor. Thus, it is no surprise that Clark's detractors in the military have gotten some good PR on their laying the groundwork to raise doubts about whether you can trust to have the full power of the American arsenal at his fingertips. If Clark's supporters fail to see this bogey on the horizon, then they need to take off the rose-colored glasses. The closer he appears to be getting to the Oval Office, the more the leaks about his relations with the top uniformed brass and the Defense Department are going to come. It could get ugly in my view, all with purpose of raising doubts, such stuff always working a lot better against someone without a public office-holding record. It is one of the downsides of being the person who never held office, for without a record, the public will naturally have less reason to think it knows what Clark will do in any given situation.

Secondly, Clark's late entry into the race will make his rather recent Republican past a lot bigger issue, one that almost sunk a far more popular political figure, Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. The more Democrats see Clark in person, the less importance this angle will be in a Democratic primary. But his late entry means far less people will see him personally in Iowa, and New Hampshire, and South Carolina, the early tests in the nomination battle. So this is a real problem for Clark on an historic basis, for he needs to have a forum to prove his acceptability to Democrats to put this issue behind him and right now, it is not clear where this will happen, at least early enough in the nomination race.

Third, without a truly defining issue or personality, history suggests that candidates like Clark, who are a product of our media-dominated society media tend to plateau somewhat shortly after they announce. Elizabeth Dole comes to mind in 2000, she being the media darling in the GOP race at the beginning. Momentum candidates can find this situation to be rather deadly to their chances since they need the press curve to carry them more than other candidates. Clark is a very media friendly personality while Dole was castor oil. But the BIG MO candidate has to be careful.

Ironically, the Bush War troubles which spawned the Clark candidacy tend to work against the General the worse they are, since it usually means it makes Bush look beatable by any Democrat. Moreover, electability has never been a major Democratic primary issue.

Two issues dominate presidential politics: peace and prosperity. Historically, prosperity, or the lack thereof, has been the most important for Democratic voters except during the Vietnam War era. Thus, Clark needs the War Issue to remain hot since a General is usually not the background for a Democratic nominee running on the economic issue.

However, as indicated, to the extent the War issue stays hot, it lowers Bush's numbers and thereby threatens to take away the electability argument in some measure as we saw in recent polls having any major Democrat capable of beating the President.

On the other hand, General Clark is surely the most intriguing candidate now running, and this means people will want to learn more about him.

Clark is apparently going to rely on TV commercials to jump-start his campaign, perhaps the ultimate irony for a "no more politics as usual" rookie candidate. But it is a recognition of reality, and so he is smart to concentrate on raising money.

History, then, says Clark needs to shore-up his Democratic credentials, protect his flank against the character leakers, get a clearer message on the peace and prosperity issue, and then hope for an opening in an early primary state.

Regardless of what the national polls are saying right now, this is a very tough political task in a few short months. Ironically, it is probably only something a rookie candidate would even try to do, the more traditional one's figuring it cannot be done AKA Senator Graham having already dropped out.

I have been impressed with how fast General Clark seems to have become comfortable with the political limelight. Even IKE was never so comfortable that fast. It is quite extraordinary.

This would not have been predicted by political history. Only time will tell what it means.

Paul Goldman (electronic mail, October 16, 2003)