Dear George:

Is there any doubt that Jane Maddux is going to try to paint herself as the heir(ess) to the Emily Couric legacy? And did you see anything in the ad that identified Jane as a Republican?

Jane's strategy has to be:

1. Hope that there is a low turnout across the mountain, so that Creigh's margin there is small in absolute numbers of votes.

2. Wrap herself in Emily's memory, and hope that folks who have a warm feeling about Emily will think that she is the logical successor to Emily.

3. Hope that the Albemarle Republican organization can produce a large enough margin in the County to offset a Democratic margin in the City.

If the turnout is as low as it usually is in these elections (15%, maybe?), we could have as few as 3,000 turn out in the City. Even if Creigh won that pool by 3-1 (unlikely), that would be a margin of only about 1,500 votes.

If Jane is successful in convincing moderates that she is the new Emily Couric, that margin could shrink to almost nothing. If turnout is equally low in the Valley, Creigh could win by
4-1 or 5-1 and still not have a very big margin.

That means that Jane Maddux would still be in the ball game, and a good effort in Albemarle could be enough.

Lloyd Snook (electronic mail, November 21, 2001)