George --

On Friday morning [October 6, 2000], journalists Charlie McDowell and Jeff Schapiro and former Governer Linwood Holton spoke at the Miller Center about the coming elections. They had some pretty interesting things to say. I was surprised (but not TOO surprised) to see that the Daily Progress did not report this event. The speakers made a number of points that were not encouraging for Republican prospects this fall, and we all know the Progress is a Paper With A View on these things. So I thought I'd send you a report in the hope that you could spread the word.

Most striking were the remarks of Governor Holton, who said that he was deeply troubled for his party (the Republicans) because they had allied themselves strongly with the wrong side on one important issue after another. The issues he mentioned included campaign finance reform, abortion, gun control, school vouchers, and race. (He could have added environmental protection.) In the long run, he said, the Republicans were going to lose out because of their inability to shake the control of special interests with strong views, and the wrong views, on these issues.

Jeff Schapiro, a political reporter for the Times-Dispatch, spoke about the Virginia Senate race. Basically, he said it was beginning to look like Allen is in trouble. His paper reported last week that the race is again a statistical dead heat despite the wide-spread assumption that Allen would win easily. He said that 66% of the undecided voters are women, and that Robb could be expected to get the majority of these voters because of his stand on the issues, especially those issues mentioned by Gov. Holton. Presumably Allen's fondness for attacking people he doesn't like won't play so well with them either.

Schapiro theorized that national Republican leaders may be beginning to wonder about Allen, who has failed to put Robb away by now, as they all assumed he would, despite gobs of money. He suggested that Allen may have to go the rest of the way mainly on his own money.

Schapiro also suggested that Allen's bizarre and inaccurate ad on welfare reform (don't even get me started on this one) was an effort to "throw red meat to his core constituents" who are angry with him because of his flip-flopping on the assault gun ban. Otherwise, he asked, how do you explain an ad that appeals mostly to Allen's rural male supporters, who were thought to be safely on board, and much less to women and Northern Va folks, who are the ones that Allen needs?

Charlie McDowell spoke at length and movingly about campaign finance reform and advocated government- funded elections as the only workable answer. He also attacked TV as having distorted the process by making slick productions more effective than sound leadership in winning elections.

It was pretty interesting. Just thought you'd like to know.

Ed Wayland (electronic mail, October 8, 2000).

Editor's Note: An AP version of the event was finally published in The Daily Progress on October 9, 2000.