Dear George:

When people ask me how a race is going, I always respond that I am "cautiously optimistic." Sometimes more cautious than optimistic, sometimes more optimistic than cautious. My caution is beginning to turn slightly more optimistic in the case of Senator Robb, for the following reasons.

First, the coattails effect. Bush should have a double-digit lead here; he doesn't. It is a generally comfortable 8-point lead, but it isn't a 15-point lead. If Bush wins by 15 points in Virginia, Robb is in trouble. With an 8-point lead, Robb is in the ballgame.

Second, the change in the numbers, small though it has been in this race, has come by Robb gaining support among undecideds. Over the last 6 months, Allen hasn't picked up any new ground. The margin 6 months ago was 46-32; now it is 46-41, or 47-43, or something close. Maybe Allen already has all the votes that he is going to get. Let's face it -- he is not exactly an unknown. I haven't seen any poll that says that Allen has 50.1%. Having said that, though, all of the polls show that Allen is within the margin of error of 50.1%.

Third, many of the undecideds are independent and Republican women, who don't respond well to Allen's "red meat to the faithful" ads. Women as a whole have not been terribly interested in welfare reform; too many of them could say, "There but for the grace of God go I." Few of them see tax cuts as crucial, particularly in this era of prosperity. They support abortion rights, and they oppose guns. They are concerned about education. many of them live in northern Virginia, where the "inside the Beltway" rhetoric doesn't play well -- heck, many of them live and work inside the Beltway. George's issues don't seem to be playing well with the undecideds.

Fourth, some of Robb's most effective ads have been the ads in which teachers talk to the camera and say, "I know Chuck Robb's record on education, and I know George Allen's record on education." I thought George Allen's "Isn't it absurd what some people will say to stay in Washington" ad was insulting to intelligent undecideds -- short on facts, long on scorn. There is just a different tone between the straightforward "teacher talks to the parents" ad and the nasty tinge to most of Allen's ads. I don't see those ads as likely to swing many new voters.

Bottom line: this race will be won or lost on turnout. If we bring out our faithful, we can win.

Lloyd Snook (electronic mail, October 9, 2000).