"After being marginalized for years, Democrats in the Virginia House of Delegates can no longer be ignored as irrelevant.

With a fight over transportation funding looming, House Democrats stand to be big players in the outcome.

Last year, House Republican leaders pushed through a major transportation bill without much advice from Democrats.

When the bill came up for a tally, House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) had secured more than 50 Republican votes for the proposal, guaranteeing its approval.

But the political environment in the House shifted after Democrats picked up four seats in the fall election and a fifth in a special election last month. Democrats, who had 34 seats in 2001, now have 45. The House has 53 Republicans and two independents, both of whom usually vote with the Republicans.

Despite that edge, it's hard to imagine how House Republicans will pass another transportation bill without Democrats' support.

Five Republican delegates -- Jeffrey M. Frederick and Robert G. Marshall of Prince William, Thomas D. Gear of Hampton, Mark L. Cole of Fredericksburg and R. Lee Ware Jr. of Powhatan -- voted against last year's plan.

For the Republicans who supported it, the political appetite to back new taxes for transportation, even at the regional level, might be waning.

The effort to raise taxes in Hampton Roads to pay for transportation improvements has become politically toxic because of public opposition. The area's Republican delegates would be taking a big risk by supporting an effort to revive the Hampton Roads Transportation Authority, which the Virginia Supreme Court ruled Sept. 29 does not have the power to impose taxes.

Conservative delegates from more rural parts of Virginia might also want to carefully consider a vote on a new transportation plan, especially because many got an earful back home after they supported the abusive-driver fees that were part of last year's proposal.

If the Republican caucus isn't unified, it probably won't be able to muscle a bill past Democrats. After the Supreme Court decision, legislative leaders appeared to overlook that new political reality in Richmond.

Top House Republican leaders met with Senate Democrats, who have a 21 to 19 majority, to see whether they could agree on a solution. House Democrats and Senate Republicans were shut out of those discussions, prompting protests from both.

When those talks went nowhere, House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong (D-Henry) took a harder tone in embracing his party's new clout. In a series of speeches on the House floor this month, Armstrong made it clear that House Republicans will have to work with Democrats if they want a solution.

House Republicans are pushing what they call a relatively easy fix for salvaging last year's transportation plan. Del. David B. Albo (Fairfax) is proposing to have the state and local governments, not the regional authorities, vote to impose the taxes.

"This can be done in a way that is black and white and makes everyone happy," he said.

Armstrong has aligned with Senate Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax). Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) is also pushing for a statewide solution for finding more money to close a budget shortfall to maintain roads.

Armstrong noted last week that he represents the area frequently referred to as "RoVa" -- the rest of Virginia -- compared with Northern Virginia ("NoVa").

"This RoVa delegate also has transportation needs," Armstrong said. "And if we do not address the maintenance issue, we will be driving on dirt roads."

Given the makeup of the House Democratic caucus, there doesn't seem to be a major political risk in Armstrong's stance.

About a third of House Democrats come from Northern Virginia, where transportation needs are acute. Most of the delegates are in safe districts. A few incumbent Democrats represent districts in Loudoun, Prince William or outer Fairfax counties that could be competitive in next year's elections, although it's hard to see how they could lose by advocating a broader statewide solution to pay for transportation.

The transportation debate could pose problems for some Democrats in conservative districts in Hampton Roads and southern Virginia. They will have to make their own calculation about whether they can fashion a politically tenable argument that some higher taxes will mean safer roads and bridges.

But if they are not even part of the discussions, they will have almost no incentive to support an ultimate compromise. And if all Democrats stand on the sidelines, Howell will have to work overtime to get his caucus behind a deal.

Even if Republicans are unified, it's doubtful they would gain much traction in trying to use the issue against Democrats. Although Republicans might try to paint Democrats as obstructionist, it's hard to make that stick if they're not part of the discussions.

If lawmakers were serious about reaching a deal, Howell, Armstrong and Kaine would sit down and develop a plan they all could support. Howell would then be responsible for finding 25 Republican members who could support it, probably those least reluctant to have a pro-tax vote on their record. Armstrong would then have to find 25 House Democrats who support it, most of them from Northern Virginia.

If Kaine really wants a transportation deal before he leaves office, and most House Republicans oppose a statewide tax increase, he could try to get all 45 House Democrats to support his proposal if Howell could find just six more Republican votes. Three of those votes could possibly come from Fairfax, where Dels. Timothy D. Hugo, Thomas Davis Rust and Albo would have to choose between their no-tax mantra and their traffic-weary constituents.

Under that scenario, it would be up to Kaine and House Democrats to prove their concerns about transportation go beyond rhetoric.

But House Republican leaders often won't even allow a bill to be debated unless they know whether it has support from a majority of their caucus.

On most issues, the Republican strategy makes sense, reinforcing the need for party unity and solidifying their shrinking grip on the reins of power. But on big issues such as transportation, that strategy might be outdated, a victim of Republicans' recent electoral losses." (Tim Craig, Virginia Notebook, The Washington Post, March 20, 2008)