"Barack Obama faces three possible paths toward choosing his running mate.

He could cave to pressure from Hillary Clinton loyalists and choose the one Democrat who would most undermine Obama's message of change. As Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote of Clinton, "She doesn't turn the page, she is the page." Obama can't afford to go there.

Obama could seek to counter doubts about his experience by choosing an older establishment figure with decades of involvement on foreign and military issues, such as Sam Nunn or Chuck Hagel.

Or he could look for someone who fits with his image of youth, energy and eagerness to break with politics as usual.

That third path leads to Virginia. There are possibilities all across the country, including Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and on and on. But three of the strongest candidates are prominent Virginia pols, and with the Old Dominion very much in play (even if no Democrat has carried the state for president since 1964), it's time to handicap the odds of their selection:

Mark Warner: 24-1. Just because the former governor is running to succeed John Warner in the U.S. Senate doesn't mean he's out of consideration for vice president. Warner, easily the most popular politician in Virginia these days, appeals well beyond the Democratic base. More important to Obama, Warner has mastered the art of winning over exactly the voters Obama had trouble persuading through most of the primary season -- working-class white voters in suburbs and rural areas.

Some in Virginia politics say Warner dropped his own presidential bid prematurely, bailing out after inaccurately concluding that Clinton's juggernaut could not be stopped. But that's water under the bridge. The question now is, would putting Warner on the ticket do Obama any good outside of Virginia?

Warner helps Obama by being a moderate Democrat who is pro-gun and who has found a way to avoid the secular elitist tag that Republicans are eager to slap on Obama. But Warner, like Obama, is perceived as someone coming to foreign and military matters fairly fresh -- not what the presumptive nominee is looking for. Warner does his NASCAR/Bubba routine well, but in the end, he's a technocrat, a new media entrepreneur who would do little to help Obama with voters who perceive him as snootier than a regular guy.

Jim Webb: 12-1. Virginia's junior senator is on paper the perfect running mate. He's the antidote to qualms some have about Obama's lack of experience on military and foreign affairs. He's the counterpoint to criticism that Obama deep down doesn't empathize or identify with Americans who never graduated from college. And, even more than Obama, Webb is perceived as unquestionably his own man, an independent if one ever existed.

Despite a fairly wooden manner on the campaign trail, Webb has proven himself politically, having taken out a popular Republican senator, George Allen. But it's also true that credit for that outcome goes as much to Mr. Macaca as to Webb himself. Had Allen not self-destructed, would Webb's antiwar credentials, soldierly stature and history as a former Republican have been enough to win?

Like Obama, Webb is a splendid writer. Unlike Obama, Webb is awkward working a rope line, and he does not take well either to the idiotic rituals required of a campaigner or to being handled by staffers.

And it's not clear that Webb would deliver Virginia. Even with the macaca gift, Webb beat Allen by only 9,000 votes out of 2.35 million cast. Webb has a great personal story and would be a big asset to Obama's campaign, but not necessarily as vice president. The risks are probably just too high.

Tim Kaine: 9-1. Virginia's governor, coming toward the end of his term, speaks almost longingly about life after public office. Rare for politicians at that level, he seems neither to need nor crave the public's adulation.

That said, he is the Virginia candidate who would be the most appealing nationally, presenting the fewest risks. Kaine and Obama share similar Kansas roots, a Harvard Law School pedigree and remarkably similar life paths, including time devoted to community service.

Kaine is more comfortable than most Democrats in speaking about the power of faith, and though he's not quite Mark Warner in his connection with rural voters, the governor has shown a similar ability to couch traditional liberal views in terms palatable to moderate and even mildly conservative voters. Kaine wouldn't help much on the military/foreign front, and the timing for the governor is not good -- Kaine is mired in a transportation funding mess that is likely to keep him in a stalemate with Republican legislators through the summer.

But if personal connections count, the Obama-Kaine relationship seems the closest of the three Virginia possibilities.

My bet: Obama picks none of the local candidates, choosing instead an older white guy with serious foreign policy experience. But beyond the fun of the parlor game, Virginia's role in this presidential campaign will be bigger than that played by any part of this region in many, many years." (Marc Fisher, The Washington Post, June 10, 2008)