"For the first time in 32 years, Virginia is considered a toss-up state in the presidential contest, this one pitting Republican John McCain against Democrat Barack Obama.

Virginia’s status as a swing state was highlighted in an analysis Thursday by Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

“Right now, it’s a pure toss-up. Both sides privately admit that,” Sabato said. “It’s 50-50. It could go either way.”

Sabato’s view about the Old Dominion was part of a 50-state look at McCain and Obama’s likely electoral victories. Overall, Sabato concluded that Obama has 200 safe electoral votes, while McCain has 174.

Virginia has not gone to a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, though it has seen several close races. In 1976, for example, Republican Gerald Ford beat Jimmy Carter by 1 percentage point.

Which way Virginia will tilt Nov. 4 is anyone’s guess, Sabato said. It will largely depend on the state of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the nation’s economy, he said.

A likely factor in Virginia, Sabato added, will be black voter turnout. Obama’s campaign has been working to register and turn out many black voters in traditionally Republican-leaning corners of Virginia, such as Southside. Obama’s strategy, he said, aims to shave off McCain’s edge in rural Virginia, while also posting a sizable lead in Northern Virginia.

While Sabato is not sure if Obama or McCain will carry Virginia, he is certain of one winner — TV stations.

Both campaigns are expected to spend millions on television ads in Virginia in the months leading up to Election Day.

Plus, Sabato said, Virginia can expect to see a greater number of visits from the two candidates, as well as on-the-ground activity from campaign staffers and activists.

In addition to Virginia, Sabato’s other battleground states were Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin." (The Daily Progress, July 11, 2008)