"If Democrat Barack Obama picks Gov. Timothy M. Kaine as his running mate — and they win — it might prove to be a disastrous recipe for the foreseeable future of Virginia’s Democratic Party.

That was the conclusion of a new in-depth analysis of Kaine’s shot at the vice presidency by Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

“What’s good for Tim Kaine, ironically, would be very bad for his party,” Sabato said Wednesday.

Under Sabato’s “nightmare scenario” for Democrats, if an Obama-Kaine ticket won the White House on Nov. 4, Kaine would resign as governor in December or January. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican, would take Kaine’s place in the governor’s mansion for the remainder of the term.

Bolling would then run for the governorship in the fall 2009 election. As Bolling would have a GOP-led House of Delegates, he would likely have a less frustrating time than Kaine did when it comes to enacting legislation, such as a transportation revenue package.

“He’d be able to say, ‘Look, I got done in one month what Tim Kaine couldn’t do in three years,’” Sabato said.

Consequently, heading into the 2009 election, Bolling would be strongly positioned to defeat whomever the Democrats select as their gubernatorial candidate, Sabato said. Two Democrats — Sen. R. Creigh Deeds of Bath County and Del. Brian Moran of Alexandria — are vying for the nomination.

Attorney General Bob McDonnell, a Republican, has long been the GOP’s presumed nominee for the 2009 governor’s race. However, both Bolling and McDonnell have a “gentleman’s agreement” that says Bolling would run in 2009 if Kaine leaves office early, Sabato said.

If Bolling were to win the governor race in 2009, McDonnell would stand a fair chance of winning the governor’s race in the following term, Sabato said. In recent history, Virginians have elected governors of the same party for at least two back-to-back terms.

Virginia’s constitution forbids governors from serving two consecutive terms, but it allows someone — in this instance, Bolling — to serve a partial un-elected term and then immediately run for the full four-year term.

If Bolling won, serving a five-year term, followed by a McDonnell win, the GOP would hold the governor’s mansion for at least nine years.

Plus, Bolling would be governor during Virginia’s next political redistricting, in 2011, giving the GOP an edge when redrawing state legislative and congressional boundaries. Such a move could help the Republicans stay in power for years.

“If Obama and Kaine win, it could be the last victory the Democrats in Virginia have for a while,” Sabato said.

Of course, all of this speculation would be rendered moot if Obama chooses a vice presidential candidate other than Kaine, or if such a ticket lost to Republican John McCain and his running mate.

In remarks to The Daily Progress in May, Kaine said he was unsure what he would say if asked by Obama to join the ticket.

“Part of me would say, ‘It’s a historic time and it’s a historic election and there’s some fundamental forks in the road that we’re going to be taking,’” Kaine said. “I signed on to help Barack win. If he wants me to help him in that way, it’d be hard to say no.”

In recent days, Kaine has increasingly been mentioned as one of Obama’s short-list contenders for the VP slot. This week, Kaine has been reticent on the topic.

If Obama decides to select Kaine, Sabato said, the answer would be affirmative.

“He will say yes to Obama in nanoseconds,” Sabato said. “He’ll say yes before Obama can even get the sentence out.”

Randy Marcus, Bolling’s chief of staff, declined to speculate about how a Kaine departure to the national stage would affect his boss. Marcus did say, however, that Bolling is ready to step up if the scenario arises.

“If it gets to that point, he is ready to serve,” he said.

Both Marcus and a spokesman for McDonnell — who is on vacation building houses in New Orleans with his family — declined to confirm the so-called gentleman’s agreement to allow Bolling to run for governor in 2009 rather than McDonnell.

Deeds said that he believes Kaine will be asked to serve as Obama’s running mate.

“It’s a huge opportunity, not only for Tim Kaine, but also for Virginia and the country,” Deeds said. “I’m excited for Tim Kaine. I’m excited for all of us.”

Deeds added that having Kaine as a vice president would not necessarily hurt his shot at winning the governor’s race next year.

“I’m an old fashioned Presbyterian. I believe everything happens for a reason,” Deeds said. “I feel like I need to run for governor. I’ve got things that I think we need to do. I’ll just deal with the situation that I have to deal with.”

Jesse Ferguson, a spokesman for Moran, said that a Vice President Kaine could help Democrats — such as Moran — get elected statewide in Virginia. Plus, Ferguson said, Moran believes he has a good chance of winning against Bolling or McDonnell in fall 2009.

“We’ve always felt strongly that he could beat either one of them,” he said.

Del. Jeff Frederick, chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, said Kaine would not help Obama win in Virginia, which is widely seen as a battleground state this year. Kaine has “not accomplished anything,” Frederick said, adding that Kaine has low approval ratings.

Frederick said that he is “not a big fan” of Sabato, but agrees that a Kaine vice presidency would be a plus for the GOP.

“It would be a much-needed shot in the arm for the Republican Party of Virginia,” he said.

C. Richard Cranwell, chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia, said his party is in great shape and would only benefit from having one of its top officials on the national stage.

“It would be good for the country,” Cranwell said. “It leaves the Democratic Party in Virginia healthy and robust, brother.”" (Brian McNeill, The Daily Progress, July 31, 2008)