"Hours after a House committee voted last week to kill a proposal requiring background checks on people who buy weapons at gun shows, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) declared the battle was "not over."

Although he said it would be a tough fight in a traditionally pro-gun state, Kaine predicted a similar bill could pass the Democratic-controlled Senate this week, which he said would give him leverage to win approval from the Republican-controlled House.

Asked why he was so optimistic against such long odds, Kaine replied: "I'm sure you are unclear why I think that. But, you know, I think that."

On Wednesday, Kaine's prediction fell short after rural Democrats teamed with Republicans on the Senate Courts of Justice Committee to defeat the proposal, which was one of Kaine's top legislative priorities in the wake of last year's Virginia Tech massacre.

The vote ending the issue was not only a setback for Kaine and the families of the Virginia Tech victims. It also showed how one of Kaine's strongest traits, his intense optimism, doesn't always translate into what he sometimes needs the most: votes.

"It takes awhile to learn to count votes," said Sen. Kenneth Stolle (R-Virginia Beach), who said Kaine had asked him to support the bill, without success. "I've been doing this for 16 years, and I don't take it for granted ever. He was too optimistic on that bill."

Whether pushing for a statewide smoking ban in bars and restaurants or an expansion of subsidized pre-kindergarten, some lawmakers say they are concerned that Kaine's buoyant rhetoric doesn't match the reality of divided party control in the General Assembly and a worsening economy.

Delacey Skinner, Kaine's communications director, said Kaine works best when he is confident and focused on achieving a victory that advances his beliefs.

"What he has found is that holding up a goal and being optimistic and being willing to work with folks, even when odds are stacked against you, has often resulted in him being able to win folks over to his way of seeing things," Skinner said. "He is trying to create an atmosphere of focusing on the goal rather than the differences."

Some Republicans question whether Kaine's optimism borders on arrogance.

"Some people do politics that way hoping it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy," said House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (R-Salem). "But I do think it can have the tendency of misleading the public."

During the final hours of last year's legislative session, Kaine was confident that he could derail a compromise between House and Senate Republicans to pay for transportation improvements. But both chambers approved it. After initially threatening to veto it, Kaine amended the plan and took partial credit for coming up with new money for highways and mass transit.

In 2006, his first year, some legislators said Kaine was too confident of his political skills when he vowed to force the General Assembly to confirm his nominee for secretary of the commonwealth, Daniel G. LeBlanc. The House rejected LeBlanc, citing his ties to organized labor, which came as no surprise in a chamber dominated by Republicans.

But Kaine's confidence also has served him well on the political stage. He is a big cheerleader for Virginia, constantly promoting the state's economic future, top ranked schools and reputation for being a well-managed state. His handling of the Virginia Tech tragedy earned universal praise.

Polls show Kaine is one of the state's most popular political figures -- 63 percent approve of the job he is doing, according to a Washington Post poll in October -- because voters see him as being personable, authentic and willing stand up for the issues he cares about.

"Clearly it is important for him to support his agenda and try to direct the debate, and I don't fault him for that," said House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong (D-Henry).

Sen. R. Edward Houck (D-Spotsylvania) said Kaine is just "a very optimistic individual. I think he likes to just think about optimistic outcomes."

In the coming weeks, however, Kaine's optimism about Virginia's economy could clash with the fiscal reality of a slump in the housing market and decline in economic growth.

When Kaine presented his two-year budget plan last month, he estimated that state revenue would double to 6.6 percent from 3.2 by 2009.

Pessimistic House and Senate leaders, fearing the state could be headed for a recession, have been calling on Kaine to revise his revenue estimates before both chambers complete their versions of the budget next month.

"It doesn't do our citizens any good to have inflated revenues in the budget," Sen. William C. Wampler Jr. (R-Bristol) said. "We cannot afford to take a wait-and-see attitude."

Skinner said Kaine "definitely hears the concern about the timing" and will consider the suggestion.

The stakes for Kaine are high because his budget has new money for many of his priorities, including education, public health and the environment. Kaine wants to keep his budget balanced by diverting $261 million, the most allowed under the law, from the state's reserve fund and borrowing $180 million from a fund used to pay for highway construction.

"We've got some tough decisions to make, so he can't afford to be anything less than optimistic," said Sen. John C. Watkins (R-Chesterfield)." (Tim Craig, The Washington Post, January 25, 2008)